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Is Brexit aftermath worse than 2007 market crash?

New research by Emoov.co.uk, has found that average monthly house price growth since the Brexit vote has been slower than market recovery after the 2007 property bubble burst.

In the two years leading up to the UK property bubble bursting, UK house prices grew at an average of 0.80%. When the market crashed at its peak of £190,032 in September 2007, house prices fell by -1.03% a month on average over the next 19 months until they bottomed out at £155,852 in April 2009.

House prices then took over five years to recover to their pre-crash peak at an average rate of 0.33% a month, before increasing to 0.50% from August 2014 to the Brexit vote at the end of June 2016. Between the end of the market crash and Brexit vote as a whole, average monthly price growth was at an average of 0.4%.

However, since the decision to leave the EU, average monthly house price growth has slowed to just 0.26% a month as continued uncertainty around our exit has left market activity subdued.

Russell Quirk, founder and CEO of Emoov.co.uk, commented: “There is no doubt that the decision to leave the EU, and the shambolic handling of the exit process, has seen UK house price growth come off the boil somewhat.

There are a number of silver linings, however. For a start, we haven’t seen the market reset in terms of property values and so despite a slower rate of growth, UK homeowners are still better off now than they were pre-Brexit. It’s also important to note that because prices have remained at an inflated level, the rate of growth is always likely to trail the market crash and so it isn’t quite the doomsday picture it might seem.

Finally, because there has been no meaningful fall in values despite the market wobbling in the face of political uncertainty, any period of lethargy is likely to be far shorter than the five-year recovery period that followed the 2007 market crash.”

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